NCAA Week 5: What I’m watching and what I’ll be watching

9 AM – UNC at Miami. I absolutely believe in Miami as an ACC contender and am equally convinced that UNC is a fraud. The QB injury is probably going to be too much. Miami’s offense was a world better against Texas A&M, and the Aggies are probably better than the Tar Heels (or at least in the same ballpark). The U in a walk, 31-13.

9 AM – Northwestern at Iowa. I’m not picking this game because I’ve seen neither team and don’t know much about it. I will say this: Iowa must win this game. If they don’t, their season’s ruined. They must bounce back from the loss at Pitt to beat a Big Ten bottom dweller at home. If they don’t, it will be a long season in Iowa City. Might be anyway.

12:30 PM – Arkansas at Texas. Texas may very well drop a holy beatdown on the Hogs. Texas is much more athletic across the board and I see no way in the world that Arkansas will score much. Horns 48, Arkansas 10.

12:30 PM – Colorado at FSU. Colorado isn’t there yet. They’ve been billed as a potential spoiler for a while now, but they’re much less dangerous on the road than in Boulder. This is the same team that really should have lost to FCS opposition two weeks ago and should have lost at home to a down WVU team last Thursday. That said, FSU has many of the same problems. I’m sticking with the Seminoles at home, but really would not be surprised by nearly anything. FSU 20, CU 17.

12:30 PM – Fresno St. at UCLA. Who is going to show up? Can’t tell, but I’m pretty sure FSU should shut down the UCLA run game, and we know they can’t throw. I think FSU is better than Arizona, so somewhat improved play from UCLA won’t likely help. Bulldogs 30, Bruins 13.

4:00 PM – TCU at Oklahoma. Here we go: a real test for the Sooners. People thought that Cincy game would be close, but I knew better. People seem to be sleeping on this one, and I know better. TCU will give Oklahoma a game and will be, by far, the best opposition the Sooners will see until Texas week. There will still be too much Oklahoma offense: I don’t see how TCU is going to hold OU down, and they’re definitely not winning a shootout. Sooners 41, Horned Frogs 20. But don’t be surprised if it’s a little bit closer than this.

4:45 PM – Alabama at Georgia. There are going to be some flat-out hits dropped in this one. Certainly the best game of the day and a major measuring stick for both teams. Neither side has a particularly strong offense, but I think John Parker Wilson will struggle much more than Stafford in this one, and that will be enough to carry UGA to the home win. Georgia 20, Alabama 10.

5:00 PM – Illinois at Penn State. Penn State should carry the day here. They’ve been strangely competent on offense and Illinois’ D is decidedly unimpressive. The winner of this one has a shot at the Big Ten, the loser is looking at the Alamo Bowl. Nittany Lions 34, Illini 24.

5:00 PM – Virginia Tech at Nebraska. Another game that should see some hitting. I feel Nebraska matches up very well here, as V-Tech doesn’t do enough on offense to exploit Nebraska’s talent deficiencies here. The Nebraska offense will do enough to see the Huskers through at home. Great to see Nebraska playing in primetime: get it done, Bo. Cornhuskers 24, Hokies 13.

Week 4 NCAA Grades

Same story as last time.

East Carolina – B. They lost their quest for the BCS, and are not likely to get it back. But NC State actually played a pretty nice game and ECU probably should have won this one anyway. They did nice work and should still go to the C-USA title game. Sadly, the banner has passed to BYU, TCU, Tulsa, and possibly Utah as BCS busters.

NC State – B+. They looked better than advertised. They were able to compete physically and make some plays on offense. The ACC is wide open, and I see no reason that NCSU can’t finish above .500 in conference play with a few breaks.

UCLA – D. The offensive ineptitude continues. There are reasons for that, but Arizona looked like the clear superior, and Arizona is not all that good. The UCLA defense doesn’t look bad, but the Tennessee game looks more and more like an aberration. The UCLA D has looked good in the past and is certainly the strongest part of the team. Still, they’re not good enough to pitch shutouts against the top half of the Pac-10, and without offensive improvement, they’re headed for a sub-.500 season for sure.

Arizona – B-. I just don’t feel that strongly about their performance. They rung up a team that couldn’t hit back. They did execute and the game was not competitive, so they get credit for that. However, they made some mistakes, and a better team would have certainly capitalized. On the other hand, a better team would probably simply dominate Arizona anyway.

Texas A&M – D. Their defense was outmanned and Miami got to the corners at will. Their secondary was OK, but Miami receivers were able to get open underneath. On offense, they looked lost. They’ll get some plays out of Goodson and the quarterbacking will improve, but there’s no way they’ll pass in the Big XII. Sure, Goodson will rush for a thousand yards, but it will not be enough to stave off conference beatdowns.

Miami – A-. The defense looked very solid and A&M really only produced on a few broken plays and a few sparks from Goodson. The offense definitely evolved, although we’ve yet to know whether the A&M defense is responsible for that. They created big holes in the running game and worked their short passing game with great effectiveness. The only thing I need to see is a vertical passing attack. If they can put that together, I see no reason that UM can’t win the ACC.

LSU – A. Boy, this team looked tough. Their offense was better than expected against a tough defense and on the road to boot. The defense wasn’t perfect, but still very solid. This team is a national title contender if ever there were one. Very, very impressive.

Auburn – A-. OK, they lost at home. Whatever. They are a damn good football team. The offense is progressing, although they did only score 14 points. The defense was good and it took some phenomenal play from LSU to unlock them. This was the best game of the year and Auburn was right in it. Either LSU or Auburn would walk through the Big Ten, ACC, and Big East with no trouble at all. More validation for the SEC in a terrific Saturday nighter. Can’t wait for next week.

Georgia – A-. A strong performance, although I wonder why UGA’s offense didn’t do a little more. The UGA defense was very impressive and UGA dealt with the hostile environment well. ASU played a decent game and served as a good test. To be honest, I think nearly any SEC road trip is at least as tough as going to ASU, but convincing wins on the road are never a bad thing. You got the sense that Georgia never really got out of first gear and never needed to do so.

Arizona State – B-. You expected worse? Well, they hung around the game despite the clear disparity, and wouldn’t that performance beat any Pac-10 team other than Oregon or USC? Isn’t a shot at the Holiday Bowl pretty much the goal for ASU? I was pretty impressed by how they handled the UGA running game and this is going to translate well to the Pac-10. USC and Oregon will move the ball on them, but the ASU defense should be good enough to get them six or seven conference wins, particularly when Rudy Carpenter isn’t facing SEC defenses.

Why are there only two power conferences? Three explanations that are too simple to be insight, but too complicated for the mainstream media to understand

 

Too much ink has been spilled in making the obvious point that there are now two power conferences in college football. The ACC and Big East are, clearly, little better than the mid-major conferences at this point, and the Big Ten is well on its way. The Pac-10 has one legitimate power, one solid team (Oregon), and eight enormous question marks. So this is factually true, and anyone other than a huge Wisconsin or Clemson fan can probably concede the point. I’m more concerned with why that’s true. Why are the SEC and Big XII now the only serious power conferences? I can think of at least three reasons.

1. Traditional power + solid management = the top of the conference. Any power conference needs the top of the conference to perform and do so consistently. The SEC has Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Auburn as strong programs under effective, consistent management. Tennessee is struggling. These are the bluebloods. The Big XII is actually somewhat thin here: Oklahoma and Texas are way up, while Nebraska and Texas A&M are struggling. The Pac-10 has a strong squad with big tradition in USC. Ohio State qualifies in the Big Ten, and Penn State probably does too. In the ACC, there are probably no teams that qualify. In the Big East, West Virginia is the only team that comes close, and I don’t even really see that. There is simply more tradition and allure in the Pac-10, Big Ten, Big XII, the ACC, and the SEC, which makes recruiting and facility improvements much less daunting. The Big Ten and ACC have a number of traditional powers underachieving (Miami, Florida State, Clemson, Michigan, and Iowa, to name a few). This alone makes it very difficult to make up the difference. This, of course, is an obvious point, but too many people buy into the BCS/non-BCS distinction without considering the reality that if a conference’s power teams are having trouble, it is very difficult to make up the gap. The resurgence of Missouri and Kansas has redeemed the Big XII North, but the difficulties of Nebraska and Colorado made the Big XII North a joke as recently as 2006. Generally, you need your heavyweights to answer the bell.

2. A total lack of innovation. This is really the problem with the Big Ten. Rich Rodriguez will be a great coach in that league, and the reason is because nobody has had a new idea in that league in a long, long time. The top teams have had playmakers lately, but they don’t get the ball in creative ways. Consider the difference between the way that Florida used its playmakers and Ohio State used theirs two years ago. Big Ten offenses look slow and clueless when faced with superior opposition. There are exceptions, but the difference is real, and Ohio State’s misfortunes just happen to be the most obvious example. The Big Ten can still slug it out in the trenches, but sometimes you need to do a little more. The same is true of ACC teams and most of the Pac-10: these offenses are not innovative. I don’t mean they should chase the spread wherever it leads or embrace whatever the fad is. Oklahoma has run at least four different offenses in the Stoops era: a Mike Leach/Steve Spurrier Fun n’ Gun (1999-2001), a pro style attack, a spread/zone blocking scheme, and the no huddle adaptation of this year. You don’t need to fit a particular mold, but you do need to be doing different things and coming up with ideas. Texas doesn’t do anything too crazy, but they’re always tinkering, always changing.

3. Talent issues. The Big Ten, most of the ACC, and most of the Big East don’t recruit well in the best talent pools, which are basically CA, TX, FL, and the deep South. This is where the best high school talent goes and they’re all going to SEC schools, Big XII schools, and USC. Watch Rich Rodriguez: he will use his more national name and style to bring top talent to Michigan, and they will begin to dominate their league.

This debate really doesn’t mean much in the big picture. These things are going to change: the Big Ten and ACC will adapt, their traditional powers will be back, and other things will change around the country. Who knows what program is headed for a fall? Of the top national title contenders this year (USC, Oklahoma, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Missouri), over half weren’t anywhere near that ten years ago. So there’s no need to decide that the sport has permanently shifted. However, the amazing difficulties faced by SEC and Big XII teams should make any pollster think twice about voting a Big XII or Big East team ahead of a remotely comparable team from either of those conferences. It’s not just that the SEC/Big XII teams have to beat three elite opponents instead of none or one: it’s that every single week is harder. Instead of going to Minnesota, you have to go to Oklahoma State or Ole Miss. Instead of facing UConn, you’ve got to play Arkansas or Kansas State. Instead of playing Arizona, you’re looking at Texas Tech or South Carolina. It’s just a tougher league, and it’s tougher every single day. Hell, even Baylor, the worst team in the Big XII, absolutely dominated the worst team in the Pac-10. The best college football is being played east of the Rockies and south of the Mason-Dixon line, with the exception of south central Los Angeles.

Week 3 NCAA grades

Same rules as last week.

California – D.  This is the same old Cal: disappointing at every turn, never sustaining themselves at a high level, never succeeding in the clutch, never playing defense for four whole quarters.  They’ll go to a bowl, and they might even win it, but heaven help them if they end up in the Holiday Bowl against Big XII opposition.

Maryland – B.  They looked like they’re ready to be in the top half of the ACC this year, but what kind of achievement is that?  I thought Cal played badly more than Maryland played well.  Their defense was able to be exploited all day and they didn’t play particularly well on offense.  They’re better than the bottom half of the ACC, but I honestly don’t even see them contending for the conference this year.  A step forward, but a small step.

Kansas – B-.  They’re the real deal, in the sense that they’re ready to be a legitimate force in the Big XII.  That’s there.  What isn’t there is that next step that will enable them to stay there for a long time and compete with top flight opposition.  They played an OK game on the road, but if you can’t run against South Florida, I’m really not sure how you’re going to run on Oklahoma or Texas.  They’re a good, solid, 5-3 type team in the Big XII.  There’s nothing to be ashamed of……but they’re not quite ready for the big leagues of the Big XII.

South Florida – B+.  They looked like the best team in the Big East, and I doubt anyone in the country would completely have their way with them.  Nevertheless, this is a team that would have a very tough time competing in a BCS bowl.  KU isn’t quite up to the talent levels of the Oklahomas, Floridas, and LSUs of the world, and USF still had a lot of trouble holding serve despite some very fortunate occurrences.  Good win and a real step forward, but there is work to be done.

MIchigan – F.  They did not execute well at all.  They handed Notre Dame a game that nobody deserved and they were not able to do anything well.  This was a step back.  I stand by what I said: Michigan has a future and Notre Dame, as of now, still does not.  But Michigan isn’t moving toward that future until they learn to hold onto the ball and play tougher defense.

Notre Dame – C-.  A win is a win is a win, and they were better this week than last.  But they didn’t beat Michigan: Michigan beat Michigan, and Notre Dame happened to be innocent bystanders.  Still, there is something to be said for not giving up what you’ve been given.  Indeed, I suspect that last year’s Fighting Irish would have found a way to drop this one too.  A step forward…..but a very small step.

Georgia – B.  I thought they played OK and were just in a dogfight with a tough South Carolina team in a hostile environment.  This is the SEC, friends, and they played some good ball.  I like Stafford and Moreno, but I think they’re a playmaker short: every Sooner, Gator, or Trojan on the field can burn you.  Can you say the same for the Bulldogs?  I really don’t think you can.  This team is a legit threat to run the table, but they are also legitimately capable of losing four games.  Wait and see……but don’t hold today against them if you know anything about college football.

South Carolina – B.  Their defense is legitimately capable of competing with the big boys.  Their offense is not.  Who thought you’d say that of a Steve Spurrier team?  They’re going to be OK, but they need some playmakers and Spurrier needs a quarterback he can trust.  Then again, maybe a quarterback needs a Spurrier he can trust…….

Oklahoma – A-.  Still some special teams and secondary concerns, but these guys looked unstoppable at times.  Absolutely dominant, and great to see that happening on the road.  Oklahoma plays at a different speed than anybody else in the college game and I see no reason to believe that they can’t run the table.  They’ll need to play just a little bit sharper in order to navigate the Big XII, but it can happen.  Get to work and get it done.

Washington – D.  Look, they’re headed in the right direction.  They really are.  I swear it.  But they were standing on the tracks and the train came through, and I suspect some hotshot young assistant will get the credit for turning UW around.  Jake Locker is a player, and I was sorry to see him take the beating he took.

USC - A.  I’m actually not 100% sold: Mark Sanchez isn’t quite there for me, but there was nothing to complain about.

Ohio State – D-.  Separate post forthcoming.

Week 3 college football: what I’m watching and what I’ll be watching

Week 3 TV schedule, with predictions.  Thanks, LA programming options.

9:00 AM – Cal at Maryland.  Cal is a little worse than they’ve looked, Maryland a little better.  Maybe.  Cal 34, MD 17.

9:30 AM – Washington State at Baylor.  Neither team has much, but Baylor is definitely more competent than Wazzu.  Baylor 26, WSU 17.

12:30 PM – Michigan at Notre Dame.  Michigan has a future, Notre Dame does not (at least without major changes).  Wolverines 23, Irish 9.

4:00 PM – Auburn at Mississippi State.  I am not sold on Auburn’s offense, but I don’t see MSU doing anything against that D.  Auburn 24, MSU 6.

4:45 PM – Oklahoma at Washington.  The Sooner Schooner will ride in Seattle, but I think Jake Locker will get his.  Still, way too much Oklahoma offense and not enough Huskies to keep Ty Willingham’s job.  Oklahoma 45, Washington 16.

5:07 PM – Ohio State at Southern California.  I just do not see any way OSU wins this game.  I also don’t see a blowout here, because I think OSU’s D will bring it and there’s a possibility that Mark Sanchez will have trouble taking care of the ball.  I think OSU’s best and perhaps only chance is a 200 yard performance from Beanie and some timely work from Boeckman.  Trojans 27, Buckeyes 13.

7:30 PM – Wisconsin at Fresno State.  I don’t know how much of an upset this is, but Wisconsin will not bully FSU the way they bullied Marshall.  Wisco has always had a tendency to take a few games off on offense, and I have a sneaking suspicion that this is the week.  Bulldogs 27, Badgers 24.

College football – Week 2 grades

The Week 2 report card is based on the performance of a team compared to the context of their performance, their league, and their ambitious, but reasonable goals. So, when we grade a team like USC, we compare them to a hypothetical Pac-10 title contender. When we grade a team like Syracuse, we compare them to a hypothetical middle of the road Big East team striving for respectability. We never assume a team should be striving for last – in order to get better than a C, you need to be taking actual steps toward improvement. So, with that in mind, I will grade all of the teams that I saw this Saturday.

Ohio – B. They certainly looked like a team that can contend in the MAC, but I honestly didn’t think they were all that outstanding. They usually looked lost on offense and relied on a backup quarterback’s scrambling to make plays. Of course, they were facing one of the better defenses in the country, and the Ohio defense looked game. Definitely a MAC contender, but not a national Cinderella, and I doubt they could compete on the home field of any other top ten team without major improvements.

Ohio St. – D+. Look, they obviously didn’t look like a team that can win the national title, or even the Big Ten. But, honestly, how far off were they? If this Ohio State team plays exactly this way through the Big Ten, aren’t they going to win at least six or seven games? Maybe more? Only Illinois, Penn State, and Wisconsin would even have a shout at the OSU team we saw on Saturday, and I think we can reasonably assume that they’ll be better than this. Right? The biggest problem this team has is that they can score ten points on any given day, and I don’t think it’s going to take a top ten defense to make it happen every time.

Notre Dame – D-. There has not been substantive improvement in South Bend. The offense looked terrible, the defense looked uninspired, and the opposition looked like a team that lost to Cal Poly. Seriously, this is a game where you must throw down the hammer and look like a real, honest-to-goodness football team. Clausen didn’t look terrible, but he also did not look good. If you can’t run on SDSU……well……

San Diego St. – D. Playing Notre Dame close used to be evidence that you can compete. Now, it’s evidence that you can’t.

Oklahoma – B. The offense is there. I would bet on the Sooners to score five touchdowns against any school in America, plus the Rams. They’ll be able to score against anybody, and only top defenses will be able to impose significant barriers. And even then, expect OU to score a lot of points. Obviously, the special teams looked poor, and this must be corrected. If that happens in a tougher matchup, well, you’ll need to cover that somewhere. I like OU to beat Texas, but I don’t want to spot the Longhorns fourteen points. The defense was shaky at times, but put pressure on the passer and blew people up. Just need to tighten up the secondary and kick coverage.

Cincinnati – I. Kind of a cop-out, but it’s tough to grade Cincy here. Their defense wasn’t as good as advertised, but the OU offense is so good that it’s really hard to grade them down for this. Their offense looked good at times, but the QB injury and the gifts on special teams really make it hard to evaluate. All we can say for sure is that they’re not a terrible team, and I see no reason that they can’t finish in the top half of the Big East.

West Virginia – D. They got straight up bullied. They lost the fight. They were physically whipped at every position and this game was never really competitive. Legitimate title contenders never get physically whipped (or at least very rarely). Maybe this sort of thing can happen to a very good team in a conference championship game, or a January bowl. Not on the road at a mid-major opponent, no matter how good they are. That can’t happen. They can still win the Big East because there are no good opponents to stop them. They’ll win the Big East, but they won’t be proud of it. And they shouldn’t be.

East Carolina – A. They’re now a sexy pick, and they should be. They’ve been able to physically compete with two good teams. They don’t play Tulsa in the regular season and will be a ten point favorite every week. I want to see these guys replicate this performance for awhile, but I think they would win the Big East, and would probably win the ACC. If they do what’s expected and play at a level near where they were, then they’ll probably go to a BCS bowl. Good for them.

Miami – B+. Yes, the offense isn’t there, but this is one of the better defenses in the country, and the pieces are there on offense. They will look much, much better against a somewhat less talented defense, and they are going to be a lot better. They also didn’t quit, which is a major improvement over last year.

Florida – B. Yes, they got a worse grade than Miami, because they deserve a worse grade. They want to win the SEC and play for a national title. Despite a Miami offense that couldn’t score or even solidly win the field position battle, Florida was in a dogfight for three plus quarters and really struggled to move the ball. Now, there are only a couple of SEC defenses capable of challenging them like Miami did (LSU, Georgia, and maybe Bama or Auburn are all I can really see), so this isn’t going to be an ongoing theme. But the offense will need to improve. The defense looked better than advertised, but again, Miami’s offense has to be considered.

Texas – A-. Their offense has really been solid, and they’ve easily handled two sneaky teams. Nice work and they’re looking good to challenge OU and Missouri for a Big XII title.

UTEP – B. They did OK against UT. They just didn’t have the horses. They’ll be fine and should go bowling.