Sadly, I was 100% correct about the NL Central

I don’t mean to be an arrogant bastard or anything…..but when you’re right, you’re right. Although I would give nearly anything to have been wrong, it seems that I nailed the NL Central at the All-Star break. Here are some quotes from that prediction, with how things actually turned out:

“The Cubs probably will not play .500 ball.  Much more realistic would be a record of oh, say, 39-28.  At that point, the Cards have to go 43-23, which is nearly winning 2 of 3 the rest of the way.  44-23 for Milwaukee.  Again, possible, but how likely is that?”

The Cubs actually went 40-26, with Hurricane Ike winning the other one. Milwaukee went 38-29 in the second half, which was exactly one game short of what they would have needed to win the Central if Chicago had played .500 ball. The Cards went 33-33, presuming they finish this rout today. Let this serve notice: statistics and probabilities matter. It is really hard to make up five games, particularly when the leader is the better team. Don’t buy the hype, and do not listen to your heart.

“Coming into today’s action, the Cubs were right on their Pythagorean record.  St. Louis and Milwaukee were both three games lucky, which means that the Cubs should really be leading by eight right about now.  As we saw above, the actual records of the teams involved in the Central race are highly suggestive of a Chicago victory.  Pythagorean records are significantly more predictive of future performance than actual records, and these are even more heavily in favor of Chicago. “

Right again, as Chicago was unlucky, the Cards and Brewers were a little lucky, and the Cubs clinched a week ago. This stuff matters.

“The Cubs are currently on pace for ninety eight wins.”

You’ve simply got to consider stuff like that when you’re thinking about whether your team is likely to catch up. The best team in baseball almost never wins two games out of three…..and the wishful thinking of fans often assumes that their team will do better than that for an extended stretch. Don’t fall into the trap of Idiocracy: hope, but make your hope an enlightened hope.

“So, how will the division finish?  I think Chicago wins this division by about ten games, clocking in anywhere between 95 and 100 wins.  The Cards and Brewers will both finish around the 85 win mark.  I’d give a slight edge to Milwaukee in the division and wild card race, simply because I think more Cardinals are playing over their heads right now.”

Pretty darn close. I didn’t think Milwaukee could make ninety wins, but they just did get there today. The basic point still stands: Chicago is an elite team, and the Cards and Brewers are slightly above average to good. The numbers count.

Playoff predictions tomorrow, or whenever we know who will be in the playoffs.

It’s all over now, baby blue

The Met victory tonight officially eliminated the Cards from the playoff race.  I’ve known for a couple weeks that this was the likely result, but now the job is finished.  Congratulations to the Cubs, Rays, Red Sox, and Angels.  Best wishes to the Mets, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Brewers, White Sox, and Twins.  Four of you will get in, and three will go home.

The 2008 NL MVP “Race”: Final proof that Idiocracy is here

So, we’re at that time when summer slowly turns to fall, when the breeze would be a little bit chillier if I didn’t live in southern California, and when the sportswriters of America “choose” a “most” “valuable” “player”.  Some would say that a non-unanimous victory for Albert Pujols would be something less than a brutal crime against humanity.  I disagree.  Here’s why Pujols doesn’t just win the race, he destroys it:

1) He dominates the NL in nearly every relevant offensive category.  He is second to Chipper in OBP at .453, leads the league with a pornographic .631 slugging percentage, and has a lot of batting average and RBIs, if you care about stupid stats.  If you like decent stats, he leads the NL by 13 Runs Created and leads the league in batting wins and offensive winning percentage.  Basically, he’s a monster at the plate.

2) He is the best defensive first baseman in the game, and among the top defenders in baseball.  Pujols has committed only five errors (another stupid stat), which is tied for best among NL 1B qualifiers.  He leads the league in revised zone rating and is tied for third in out of zone plays (both of the people who have more OOZ plays than Albert have significantly worse numbers in their zone, indicating erratic defense).  Pujols has saved heaven knows how many errors at first base.  It’s not often that the best bat in the league is also the best glove in the league.

3) If you believe in stupid stuff like “intangibles” (which are always then made tangible through nonsensical analysis), Pujols finishes first there too.  On a team that was supposed to win 70 games, Pujols performed well enough to keep the team in contention through mid September.  Pujols is widely acclaimed as one of the hardest workers in baseball and is an amazing influence in the community.  He’s one of the best baserunners in the game.  Despite hitting for outstanding power, he’s one of the toughest strikeouts in the league.  Basically, if you like to define value properly, Pujols wins in a walk.  If you like stupid stuff, Pujols wins that too.  So why is it that at least half of these morons who call themselves “writers” will vote for someone else?  We’ve got a few other candidates in the mix: Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, Chase Utley, C.C. Sabathia, and Manny Ramirez.  Let’s take those in turn.

RYAN HOWARD

OK, so he’s got a nice smile and craps inner city ballparks.  The only argument for Howard over Pujols is his power: nobody hits for more power than Ryan Howard (or so the legend goes).  But has anybody checked the numbers?  He does have twelve more dingers and thirty more RBI.  However, a much better measure of power is isolated power, which is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage.  This shows you how hard the batter hits the ball when he hits it, eliminating all those nasty times when he doesn’t.  Here’s a shocker: Howard’s IsoP is .284, Albert’s .283.  They’ve got exactly the same power.  The difference is Pujols provides that power a whole lot more often, crapping doubles while Howard’s crapping cheeseburgers.  And how would you compare the non-power elements of Howard’s game to those same element’s of Albert’s?  Show yourself out.

Q: How do you turn Ryan Howard into Albert Pujols?

A: Add twenty walks, seventeen doubles, and thirty one hits.  Turn lousy defense into the best defense in the league.  Turn a useless baserunner into one of the best.  Subtract eighty plate appearances and seventy pounds.

LANCE BERKMAN

This is a thinking man’s argument.  Lance Berkman is one hell of a player, and Ryan Howard is not fit to carry his jock (at least in 2008).  Berkman finishes a bit behind Pujols in all of the defensive metrics.  The problem is that Berkman is still giving up thirty points of OBP and seventy points of SLG.  He’s a good player, a great player even, but a touch behind Albert in every way, and he plays the same position.  Lance has a great case as the second best player in the league.  He is not the best.

CHASE UTLEY

Utley’s offense lags well behind Albert: he’s giving up seventy points of OBP and a hundred points of SLG despite a much better home ballpark.  The only real argument for Utley is that he has more positional value, which is indisputable.  He might well be the best defensive second baseman in the NL, which is an outstanding point in his favor.  However, it isn’t enough to make up a whopping advantage in Albert’s offensive numbers.  Think of it this way: the offensive difference between Albert Pujols and Chase Utley is pretty much the same as the difference between Chase Utley and Kelly Johnson.  Playing second base doesn’t make that go away.

C.C. SABATHIA

Good night, this is a stupid argument.  But I’ll crush it anyway.  Albert Pujols is sixty eight runs better than the league average hitter.  Over his time in the National League, Sabathia has been about thirty four runs better than the NL average pitcher.  Over the whole season, Sabathia has been about fifty runs better than the average pitcher.  Albert wins easily…..oh crap.  I forgot to mention that Albert is also the best defensive player at his position.  And the baserunning.  And everything else.

MANNY RAMIREZ

OK, so he’s been great for the Dodgers.  Over the whole season, he’s been fourteen runs worse than Albert compared to the league average.  Game over.  And you want to compare their defensive value?  Maybe you think Manny stabilizes a clubhouse while Albert destroys one?  Well, I guess that’s an empirical question…..I don’t even know how you’d evaluate that…..

We must never forget

Ray Lankford was my first hero.  I loved Ozzie Smith, but he was a little bit before my time – of course, he played for seven or eight years after I started consciously following baseball, and any Cardinal fan loves him more than God, family, country, or a power hitter (not named Musial or Pujols).  Ray Lankford, however, was a rookie right when I started following the game.  He went 2-4 on his debut, and hit a homerun in the first at bat of the 1994 season.  He finished third in the Rookie of the Year balloting.  His 1997 season was a monster year: the team was so bad, so offensively challenged, and yet Lankford kept the boys afloat as best he could, posting a career best 159 OPS+.  He finished sixteenth in the MVP voting.  I guess sixteenth is all you get for being the fifth best offensive player in the league, who just happened to be the league’s best defensive center fielder.  Doesn’t seem fair, but then I don’t think baseball was ever very fair to Ray Lankford.

He patrolled center field with a grace that hardly anyone remembers.  Only a shoulder surgery forced him into left field, and I’d argue that even the weak armed Lankford was a better center fielder than most.  And oh, my, how he could hit.  He posted a career OPS+ of 122 – friends, that’s the equal of Tony Perez, Paul Molitor, and Jeff Kent, and none of those three were among the better defensive center fielders of their time.  Two of those three are Hall of Famers, and Kent probably will be (although all three are marginal at best), but nobody’ll ever shed a tear for old Ray.  Why, I’ll never know: Ray Lankford was a better ballplayer than all three of ‘em.  I hope that at least one of those writers checks the box.

Ray’s 41 now, and presumably doing fine.  I always regretted the way he left St. Louis, and wish it had worked out differently at the end.  There was still a little life left in his bat in 2004, even though he was run out of St. Louis: the guy still posted league-average offensive numbers and scored thirty six of the runs that helped us win the pennant that year.  I wish he’d been able to get his ring, but it just never worked out.  Same way with Tom Pagnozzi, and Donovan Osborne, and Brian Jordan, and all of my other heroes from that time.  I guess there’s more 83-79 than pennant winner in all of us.

I don’t know why I thought about Ray Lankford tonight.  Maybe this team reminds me of the 1993 Cards, or maybe seeing Josh Phelps, Cesar Izturis, and Felipe Lopez in the same lineup made me a little wistful.  Maybe a 10-2 beating inspires thoughts that aren’t altogether rational.  But I’m glad I remembered old Ray, and I hope he’s doing well.

8/7/08 – Dodgers 4, Cardinals 1

With any luck, I’ll be able to post a little more now that I’m settled in here in LA.  The Cards dropped this one on getaway day primarily because of their inability to hit Clayton Kershaw.  Not a whole lot else to say, really.  Lohse was unstable early, but settled into the game a little bit.

A huge series coming up in Chicago.  If the Cards are to retain any hope of winning the division, and I firmly believe that this ship has sailed, they’ll need to win this series.  This is the beginning of a ten game road trip that could be a make or break proposition.  If the Cards can win at least five, they’ll avoid the knockout punch.  The four games that follow in Florida are important for a number of reasons, but one of the more interesting is the possibility to knock Florida out of the wild card race.  A four game sweep in Florida would probably finish the Marlin hopes of winning the wild card.  If the Cards don’t win at least three of the first seven on the trip, they’ll not only be in huge trouble in the division and lose ground to Milwaukee, but they’ll bring another team closer into the race.  This is August, friends, and every one matters.

I am now part of a grand tradition

Sorry I haven’t posted much lately.  I am now a part of the grand tradition of Oklahomans migrating to California in search of opportunity.  I am glad to be going, but it is definitely kind of strange, as I have never lived outside of Oklahoma before (with the exception of a brief stint in KS/NE before I was two).  So it will be a major improvement in my life, but it will also be a lot to do and accomplish.  Then I have to, for the first time in my life, attend a real honest to goodness university with real honest to goodness smart people.  Good times.

In the baseball world, I’ve calmed down somewhat.  The Cards are now five games out of first in the Central, but are tied with Milwaukee for the wild card.  Carp is back, Ankiel should be back in the lineup tomorrow, and summer will begin to turn to fall, as August is upon us.  I arrive in Los Angeles at 3:30 PDT, and the Cardinal game starts at 5:15 PDT.  So, I have an hour and forty five minutes to catch a shuttle, get to Westwood, check into my apartment, get what little of my stuff I have into the apartment, get set up on the internet connection, and listen in.  I haven’t missed a game in a few months, so let’s hope this doesn’t break that streak.  I can’t imagine how awful it would be – but it’s all a day in the life of a loyal member of Cardinal Nation.  I may be moving to heaven, but Baseball Heaven will always be the Red Sea on the Mississippi.  Go get ‘em, Kyle.

7/21/08-7/26/08 – One Shitty Week

Sometimes you lose.  Sometimes you lose.  It never rains.  And sometimes you lose.

Four consecutive soul crushing losses have placed the Cardinals in serious jeopardy heading into the final two months of the season.  Tonight, a similarly gut-wrenching loss nearly occurred, but the Cards were able to fight off the Visigoths and win in fourteen innings.  It took five hours and nine minutes, but the lads were able to defeat the Mets and end a five game losing streak.  The game left me emotionally unstable, which is kind of a rarity.  Usually, I get angry, frustrated, sad, whatever, but never just prone to wild mood swings and staring at the door all at once.  I felt that way for about an hour after this one, which should tell you all you really need to know.

The good news?  Chris Carpenter returns to the big leagues on Wednesday in Atlanta.  Not a moment too soon.  Even shortened starts and tight pitch counts will be a major improvement on what we’ve been seeing.  The bullpen had to go ten innings tonight after Joel Piniero’s abortion of a start, his fourth time to allow 10 or more hits in his last five starts.  The guy is getting pummelled.  Adam Wainwright threw curves today, and should be beginning rehab starts soon.  Come back, Adam, and come quickly, Carp. 

12:05 tomorrow, Lohse and Santana.  Get three runs and hope for the best.

6/20/08 – Cardinals 9, Padres 5

Walkoff grand slams……bases loaded escapes…..blown saves that don’t matter…..if I didn’t know better, I’d say this is a pennant contender.  I’d rather be lucky than good.

Jaime Garcia made his first start in the Show today, and he looked very strong.  He’s got a plus curve, which showed on 4 Ks in 5 IP today.  I believe that Garcia is the second best starter on the team right now, and he must stay in the rotation upon the return of Carp and Wainwright.  He can offer a legitimate pitching option for a postseason series, and he’s the real deal.  Please, stick with it, hang in there, leave him alone.  He can pitch for this team for fifteen years. 

The Cardinal offense was pretty lackluster, then Pujols came off the bench and all hell broke loose.  It actually didn’t have a lot to do with him initially, but he did single, and he then drew the walk that eventually led to the bases loaded situation that Miles converted.  It’s a strange situation, really: most of the time, a walkoff slam would be tremendously dramatic.  In this case, once you saw it was going to be a long fly ball, the game was over, so I was rejoicing well before the ball actually cleared the fence.  In any case, great stuff, and the Cards sweep a four game series.

This winning streak has been absolutely essential.  These wins were needed coming into the four games with Milwaukee, in which the Cards must earn at least a split.  Three wins over Milwaukee would be absolutely enormous.  I have to tell you as a Cardinal fan that the feeling is different, the expectation of victory is here now, so the inevitable heartbreak that is an MLB season is going to hurt more than anything else in the world.

Piniero and McClung on national TV at 6:05.  McClung walks people…..the Cardinals walk…..I feel good about this.  Need to win, as Sabathia and Sheets come in the final two.  I’d love to play those with house money.

6/17/08-6/19/08 – Three stories

Game 1) The Cardinals win behind strong starting pitching and shaky, but ultimately strong enough relief pitching.  Four solo shots were all the offense the lads needed (Glaus, Ankiel, Glaus again, Mather).

Game 2) A slugfest in which Greg Maddux and Braden Looper were utterly ineffective – the Cards rallied from a 6-3 hole to win 11-7.

Game 3) Poor starting pitching and lucky relieving are just good enough to honor a monster day from Albert Pujols, as the Cards win 6-5.

The Cardinals didn’t play particularly well in any of these games, but have been good enough to win three times against the Padres, who are rivaled only by Washington and perhaps the Rockies and Giants as the worst teams in the National League.  Two Chicago losses have brought the Cards within two of the lead as they go for the sweep tomorrow.  More analysis later, but for right now, it’s enough to enjoy some good fortune.  Lohse has been the only dependable starter, and as you might predict, Cardinal fans are counting the days until the return of Wainwright and Carpenter.  St. Louis faces four immense home games against Milwaukee following Sunday’s game before hitting the road for seven in New York and Atlanta.  The next eleven will be difficult, but tomorrow counts just as much.  Gotta win.  Jaime Garcia makes his starting debut – solid fastball, plus curveball, decent approach.  Hoping for six strong innings at 1:15.

Papelbon’s Arrogance Powers City Block

In the lastest All-Star non-story, Jonathan Papelbon briefly claimed that he should close over Mariano Rivera, should the AL be in such a position.  The money quote:

“”If I was managing the team, I would close,” Papelbon said. “I’m not managing the team, so it don’t matter.”

Papelbon has an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP of 0.96, and a pretty devastating K/BB ratio.

Rivera has am ERA of 1.06, a WHIP of 0.64, and a 50/4 K/BB rate.  He’s flipping walked four guys all year!

Forget nostalgia, forget last All-Star game at Yankee Stadium.  The choice is clear.

Paps, if you were managing, you’d not be a good manager.  You’d eventually tell Adam Dunn to stop clogging up the bases while inserting Neifi Perez for Alex “Not a Gamer” Rodriguez in a half cocked double switch.