I don’t mean to be an arrogant bastard or anything…..but when you’re right, you’re right. Although I would give nearly anything to have been wrong, it seems that I nailed the NL Central at the All-Star break. Here are some quotes from that prediction, with how things actually turned out:
“The Cubs probably will not play .500 ball. Much more realistic would be a record of oh, say, 39-28. At that point, the Cards have to go 43-23, which is nearly winning 2 of 3 the rest of the way. 44-23 for Milwaukee. Again, possible, but how likely is that?”
The Cubs actually went 40-26, with Hurricane Ike winning the other one. Milwaukee went 38-29 in the second half, which was exactly one game short of what they would have needed to win the Central if Chicago had played .500 ball. The Cards went 33-33, presuming they finish this rout today. Let this serve notice: statistics and probabilities matter. It is really hard to make up five games, particularly when the leader is the better team. Don’t buy the hype, and do not listen to your heart.
“Coming into today’s action, the Cubs were right on their Pythagorean record. St. Louis and Milwaukee were both three games lucky, which means that the Cubs should really be leading by eight right about now. As we saw above, the actual records of the teams involved in the Central race are highly suggestive of a Chicago victory. Pythagorean records are significantly more predictive of future performance than actual records, and these are even more heavily in favor of Chicago. “
Right again, as Chicago was unlucky, the Cards and Brewers were a little lucky, and the Cubs clinched a week ago. This stuff matters.
You’ve simply got to consider stuff like that when you’re thinking about whether your team is likely to catch up. The best team in baseball almost never wins two games out of three…..and the wishful thinking of fans often assumes that their team will do better than that for an extended stretch. Don’t fall into the trap of Idiocracy: hope, but make your hope an enlightened hope.
“So, how will the division finish? I think Chicago wins this division by about ten games, clocking in anywhere between 95 and 100 wins. The Cards and Brewers will both finish around the 85 win mark. I’d give a slight edge to Milwaukee in the division and wild card race, simply because I think more Cardinals are playing over their heads right now.”
Pretty darn close. I didn’t think Milwaukee could make ninety wins, but they just did get there today. The basic point still stands: Chicago is an elite team, and the Cards and Brewers are slightly above average to good. The numbers count.
Playoff predictions tomorrow, or whenever we know who will be in the playoffs.
