7/21/08-7/26/08 – One Shitty Week

Sometimes you lose.  Sometimes you lose.  It never rains.  And sometimes you lose.

Four consecutive soul crushing losses have placed the Cardinals in serious jeopardy heading into the final two months of the season.  Tonight, a similarly gut-wrenching loss nearly occurred, but the Cards were able to fight off the Visigoths and win in fourteen innings.  It took five hours and nine minutes, but the lads were able to defeat the Mets and end a five game losing streak.  The game left me emotionally unstable, which is kind of a rarity.  Usually, I get angry, frustrated, sad, whatever, but never just prone to wild mood swings and staring at the door all at once.  I felt that way for about an hour after this one, which should tell you all you really need to know.

The good news?  Chris Carpenter returns to the big leagues on Wednesday in Atlanta.  Not a moment too soon.  Even shortened starts and tight pitch counts will be a major improvement on what we’ve been seeing.  The bullpen had to go ten innings tonight after Joel Piniero’s abortion of a start, his fourth time to allow 10 or more hits in his last five starts.  The guy is getting pummelled.  Adam Wainwright threw curves today, and should be beginning rehab starts soon.  Come back, Adam, and come quickly, Carp. 

12:05 tomorrow, Lohse and Santana.  Get three runs and hope for the best.

6/20/08 – Cardinals 9, Padres 5

Walkoff grand slams……bases loaded escapes…..blown saves that don’t matter…..if I didn’t know better, I’d say this is a pennant contender.  I’d rather be lucky than good.

Jaime Garcia made his first start in the Show today, and he looked very strong.  He’s got a plus curve, which showed on 4 Ks in 5 IP today.  I believe that Garcia is the second best starter on the team right now, and he must stay in the rotation upon the return of Carp and Wainwright.  He can offer a legitimate pitching option for a postseason series, and he’s the real deal.  Please, stick with it, hang in there, leave him alone.  He can pitch for this team for fifteen years. 

The Cardinal offense was pretty lackluster, then Pujols came off the bench and all hell broke loose.  It actually didn’t have a lot to do with him initially, but he did single, and he then drew the walk that eventually led to the bases loaded situation that Miles converted.  It’s a strange situation, really: most of the time, a walkoff slam would be tremendously dramatic.  In this case, once you saw it was going to be a long fly ball, the game was over, so I was rejoicing well before the ball actually cleared the fence.  In any case, great stuff, and the Cards sweep a four game series.

This winning streak has been absolutely essential.  These wins were needed coming into the four games with Milwaukee, in which the Cards must earn at least a split.  Three wins over Milwaukee would be absolutely enormous.  I have to tell you as a Cardinal fan that the feeling is different, the expectation of victory is here now, so the inevitable heartbreak that is an MLB season is going to hurt more than anything else in the world.

Piniero and McClung on national TV at 6:05.  McClung walks people…..the Cardinals walk…..I feel good about this.  Need to win, as Sabathia and Sheets come in the final two.  I’d love to play those with house money.

6/17/08-6/19/08 – Three stories

Game 1) The Cardinals win behind strong starting pitching and shaky, but ultimately strong enough relief pitching.  Four solo shots were all the offense the lads needed (Glaus, Ankiel, Glaus again, Mather).

Game 2) A slugfest in which Greg Maddux and Braden Looper were utterly ineffective – the Cards rallied from a 6-3 hole to win 11-7.

Game 3) Poor starting pitching and lucky relieving are just good enough to honor a monster day from Albert Pujols, as the Cards win 6-5.

The Cardinals didn’t play particularly well in any of these games, but have been good enough to win three times against the Padres, who are rivaled only by Washington and perhaps the Rockies and Giants as the worst teams in the National League.  Two Chicago losses have brought the Cards within two of the lead as they go for the sweep tomorrow.  More analysis later, but for right now, it’s enough to enjoy some good fortune.  Lohse has been the only dependable starter, and as you might predict, Cardinal fans are counting the days until the return of Wainwright and Carpenter.  St. Louis faces four immense home games against Milwaukee following Sunday’s game before hitting the road for seven in New York and Atlanta.  The next eleven will be difficult, but tomorrow counts just as much.  Gotta win.  Jaime Garcia makes his starting debut – solid fastball, plus curveball, decent approach.  Hoping for six strong innings at 1:15.

Do you know someone struggling with addiction?

If you do, or if you’re that someone, you should certainly check out the excellent Speaking of Faith podcast on the matter.  The program focuses on Twelve Steps-style recovery programs and does a fantastic job of explaining the spiritual side of addiction and recovery.  The program really opened my eyes, as there are those in my life who struggle with some of these issues.

As you may know, it is not easy to discuss religion in an informed way without embracing hostility.  Most people have at least some deeply held convictions, and most people aren’t really capable of talking about these convictions without feeling a need to force others into the same position or die trying.  Speaking of Faith is terrific because it doesn’t do that – Krista Tippett, the host and native Oklahoman, is wonderfully skilled at staying out of the way, asking leading questions yet allowing the stories of her guests to drive the program.  This program is just another example of that, and I believe that any of you who might have addiction in your life or in the life of a family member should spend an hour with this podcast.  No matter what faith you embrace (or even if you reject all faith), this is a worthy approach to addiction and contains universal truths that we can all embrace within our own lives.

I had a grandfather who was able to overcome an alcohol addiction late in his life.  The difference that he felt was enormous – when he drank, his family despised him and he them.  Following the death of one of his daughters and a rather lengthy speech from one of his doctors, he made a commitment to stop drinking and embrace the family that he had.  He spent five years to the day free of alcohol, and those five years were the best of his life.  I regret not talking to him more.  I am grateful for his example, both because it inspired me to avoid alcohol and other harmful drugs and because it helped me to see the power of personal change.  Nobody in my family ever thought he’d stop drinking – we thought he’d die drunk, and likely at the neighborhood tavern.  He exceeded all expectations.  At his funeral, nobody talked about his alcoholism and recovery, but it was on everyone’s mind.  He died a good man, the man his family had always wanted him to be, and there is much to be said for that.

Anyway, at worst, it’s a good program, and you should listen to it.  You’ll learn much about the spiritual elements of addiction and the potential for recovery.  I hope the story of my grandfather illustrates, at minimum, the power of individuals to make lasting changes in their lives.  If you’re addicted to something, I hope you get help.  If you have a family member addicted to something, I hope you get help.  And, if you’re not addicted to anything, try this instead of alcohol.

Golf expected at British Open; AARP meeting ensues

Well, check this out.  After nearly two rounds at the British, Rocco Mediate, Greg Norman, and Tom Lehman are all within two strokes of the lead (Rocco tied for the lead, Norman 1 back, Lehman 2 back).  It’ll be fun to watch this unfold.

Papelbon’s Arrogance Powers City Block

In the lastest All-Star non-story, Jonathan Papelbon briefly claimed that he should close over Mariano Rivera, should the AL be in such a position.  The money quote:

“”If I was managing the team, I would close,” Papelbon said. “I’m not managing the team, so it don’t matter.”

Papelbon has an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP of 0.96, and a pretty devastating K/BB ratio.

Rivera has am ERA of 1.06, a WHIP of 0.64, and a 50/4 K/BB rate.  He’s flipping walked four guys all year!

Forget nostalgia, forget last All-Star game at Yankee Stadium.  The choice is clear.

Paps, if you were managing, you’d not be a good manager.  You’d eventually tell Adam Dunn to stop clogging up the bases while inserting Neifi Perez for Alex “Not a Gamer” Rodriguez in a half cocked double switch.

The NL Central at the All-Star Break

Coming into the season, most expected a dogfight between the Cubs and Brewers.  That has sort of happened, but of course the Cardinals have crashed the party.  The Cards currently lead the NL wild card race and sit just 4 1/2 back of Chicago, with Milwaukee five out.

Of course, the real question is how this is going to end.  First of all, it has to be noted that we’ve got about sixty five to seventy games left in the season, depending on how each team’s schedule has broken down.  So there actually isn’t all that much baseball left to play.  Over such a small schedule (relatively speaking), the teams chasing Chicago actually have to play very good baseball to catch up.  Let’s say the Cubs, over their remaining 67 games, go a pedestrian 34-33.  .500 baseball.  In order for the Cardinals to finish the season tied for first, they’ve got to go 38-28, which would be an improvement over their current pace.  The Brewers would need to go 39-28.  While that’s entirely possible, consider the following:

1) The Cubs probably will not play .500 ball.  Much more realistic would be a record of oh, say, 39-28.  At that point, the Cards have to go 43-23, which is nearly winning 2 of 3 the rest of the way.  44-23 for Milwaukee.  Again, possible, but how likely is that?

2) Coming into today’s action, the Cubs were right on their Pythagorean record.  St. Louis and Milwaukee were both three games lucky, which means that the Cubs should really be leading by eight right about now.  As we saw above, the actual records of the teams involved in the Central race are highly suggestive of a Chicago victory.  Pythagorean records are significantly more predictive of future performance than actual records, and these are even more heavily in favor of Chicago. 

So, what has to happen for the Cardinals or Brewers to catch Chicago?  Well, in my estimation, two things have to happen.  First, the Cubs need to either play worse or run into some bad luck.  If they play at their current pace, it’s all over.  The Cubs are currently on pace for ninety eight wins.  The Cardinals are not going 45-21 (unless the 2004 team shows up) and the Brewers are not going 46-21 (under any conditions).  They would have to play significantly worse than their actual record and their Pythagorean record suggests, and there just isn’t much reason to think that will happen.  Still, it has to if the Cardinals or Brewers are to win the NL Central.

The other thing that has to happen is that the Cardinals and Brewers need to improve somehow.  It is in this success or failure that the wild card, and possibly the division, will be decided.  What can happen?

For St. Louis. the return of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright around the first of August will be huge.  If these guys can pitch properly (Wainwright as his old self, Carpenter as even a league-average starter), the Cardinal staff will improve greatly.  Other than that, the Cardinals can’t really expect much in the way of improvement.  Troy Glaus could produce a little more, and if Chris Duncan continues to hit, the team will be stronger offensively.  It’s not out of the question for Adam Kennedy to produce a bit more offensively.  The problem, of course, is that if any of Schumaker, Ankiel, Ludwick or Molina begin to fall off, the offense will suffer greatly.  So, the prognosis probably isn’t good.  The best case scenario is a dominant Carpenter and Wainwright to stick in a rotation with Lohse and two of the Wellemeyer/Looper/Piniero triumvirate.  That would be a pretty good situation, would strengthen the bullpen a bit, and would give the team a chance to win ninety games.

For Milwaukee, I maintain that they just need to get more out of their offense.  Their pitching is what it is.  Sheets and Sabathia are good, Parra is good but unproven, and the rest is a black hole.  The bullpen is very top-heavy and the guys performing well don’t have a track record to suggest it will continue.  They need Gallardo to pitch well.  They need Ryan Braun to get on base.  They need EVERYONE to get on base.  Two regulars with an OBP over .350?  TWO?!?!?  Their best OBP is Hardy’s .356, which is fine for a shortstop, but really isn’t all that great.

Compare to Chicago’s starting eight (.367/.371/.378/.387/.396/.332/.333/.384) and St. Louis’ lineup (.365/.470/.350/.371/.316/.344/.364/.357).  Their guys are probably capable of better, but they must produce it.  Unless they can get on base more often, they’ll never score enough runs to win more than eleven out of twenty, and that will not win the NL Central, and probably won’t win the wild card.

So, how will the division finish?  I think Chicago wins this division by about ten games, clocking in anywhere between 95 and 100 wins.  The Cards and Brewers will both finish around the 85 win mark.  I’d give a slight edge to Milwaukee in the division and wild card race, simply because I think more Cardinals are playing over their heads right now.  However, the return of Carpenter and Wainwright will loom large.  If the Cardinals can get those guys back in prime condition, they could reel off a long winning streak, and may well break ninety wins.  I don’t see that happening in any situation for Milwaukee, but I think the most likely scenario (effective Wainwright, minimal to decent contribution from Carpenter) would keep the Cards around the 85 win mark, and a precipitous decline from any of Tony and Dave’s miracles could send the Cards to the .500 mark.

One more note: NL Central fans should not assume the wild card will come from that division.  The Mets and Phillies are creeping up, as are the Marlins.  As is, it’s six teams (CHC, STL, MIL, NYM, FLA, and PHI) for three playoff spots, and the Cubs are mortal locks.  So any two of the other five could see the playoffs.  The postseason is a crapshoot, but the Cubs are clearly the class of the league, and I feel they’ve got at least a 50% chance to represent the league in October.

“Pinkerton” taught me all I needed to know about the first half of 2008

It’s true.  I’ve listened to this album far too much this summer, but Weezer’s typically impeccable songwriting might as well have been about the 2008 MLB season.  What?  Too gimmicky, too pop culture?  Sorry – that’s how I roll, and it’s a natural consequence of having nothing to do for the next month.  Lyrical dedications to the brides, bridesmaids, and flower girls of the first half:

Why are you so far away from me?

To the Colorado Rockies, who must find it impossible to remember the greatest September charge of our generation.  Most expected Colorado to at least keep it respectable, and possibly contend for an NL West crown.  Ironically, the primary criticism of Colorado’s chances came from those who expected the Rockies to be an 84 win club, which would of course not be nearly enough to sink the Diamondbacks.  As it turns out, an 84 win pace would give the Rockies the biggest divisional lead in baseball.

Goddamn, you half Japanese girls, do it to me every time

To Kosuke Fukodome, who made the All-Star team thanks to ballot stuffing that would even make the LDP proud.  (If you thought that joke was funny, proceed to the University of Chicago immediately).  He’s a fine player, gets on base and plays OK defense and all.  But there are about twelve NL outfielders who would have been clearly better choices.  It’s cool: the fans get what they want.  I guess.

So why can’t I be making love come true?

To the Tampa Bay Rays, who must feel after a seven game losing streak like it’s all just a fling, with the real thing to be put off indefinitely.  Don’t fret: these things happen.  You’re a good baseball team now, and good baseball teams win games again.  Take three days, enjoy your position in the AL East.  You’re still ahead in the loss column, and all will be well.

So I’d rather keep whackin

To the Milwaukee Brewers, who walk less than any comparable offensive outfit I can remember.  I mean, look at these guys, right?  They’ve got seven legit 25 HR guys in that lineup, have a few guys underachieving, and still are 4th in the NL in slugging percentage.  Why is it so easy to pitch to them?  Why does a holy terror like Ryan Braun have only twenty walks all year?  If they fall short to the Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, or whomever for the wild card, they’ll have this to blame.

When I look in the mirror, I can’t believe what I see

To the Cleveland Indians, the best run franchise to underachieve this much in recent memory.  It all makes sense!  Everything they’ve done!  And still nothing works.  I can’t explain Travis Hafner’s decline without some stupid steroid-ridden theory, but maybe it’s true.  The most inexplicable team in baseball.  Of course, their Pythagorean record is about .500, but even that’s ridiculous.  In 2006, this looked for all the world like a perennial hundred win team.

If everyone’s a little queer, why can’t she be a little straight?

To the Atlanta Braves, the queens of reasonable requests.  Atlanta is now a hilarious 5-22 in one run games, with a Pythagorean record that would put them right in the middle of the divisional race.  I have no explanation.  I’ve thought about it for two months and I have no idea what’s happening down there.  Worst luck ever.

I did what my body told me to

To Mark Mulder.  I’m sorry, man, but I think it’s all done.  As a Cardinal fan and a baseball fan, I appreciate and respect what he tried to do.  But I think it’s time to say goodbye.  Many Cardinal fans resent you, but not me: it’s not your fault we overpaid, and it’s not your fault your best wasn’t enough.

 

It used to be a game, now it’s a crying shame

To the Kansas City Royals, who adamantly refuse to run a proper organization.  They piss away money on free agents who will never be around for their next .500 season, they refuse to draft the best talent…….wow.

Excuse the bitchin, I shouldn’t complain

To Hank Steinbrenner.  Seriously, what did you think was going to happen with this team?

Maybe you could break my heart next summer

To the Milwaukee Brewers, again.  They’ll contend this year, and could win the World Series if all goes well.  But they probably won’t (that’s the nature of the postseason), and will have exactly one decent, major league-ready starter on the roster at this time next year.  If they don’t get pitching help fast, a major opportunity will slip.

It’s gonna hurt me, it’s gonna kill when you desert me

To the St. Louis Cardinals, who’ve inflicted a pennant race on me.  Trouble is, I think we brought a hamburger to a steak fry.  This year has gone better than I could have ever expected, particularly with the best pitcher on the team in the hot tub.  And the second best pitcher…….and the…….

I hope she stays, but I think she’s gonna go.

7/12/08-7/13/08 – The worst of times, the best of times

A tale of two baseball games:

Saturday: The Cards jump out to a big lead, pummeling Pittsburgh pitching.  The bullpen completely collapses, Pittsburgh leaves nobody on base, and the lads lose in ten.

Sunday: The Cards jump out to a decent lead, pummeling Ian Snell.  The starter (Piniero) collapses, Pittsburgh leaves a few on base, and the guys finish it off with decent work from the bullpen.

As Kyle McClellan has started to return to earth, the Cardinal bullpen is distinctly lacking.  It’s not that it’s a bad bullpen, or that there are no options.  It’s just that there aren’t a couple of guys that can consistently stop the bleeding.  Some nights, nothing really works, and you can lose virtually any lead.  Other days, the pen is fine and the bats keep rolling.  Still, the Cards only take two of three in Pittsburgh, and leave a vital game on the table.

As we roll into the All-Star break, the Cards are 4 1/2 behind Chicago and 1/2 ahead of Milwaukee.  If the playoffs were to start today, the Cardinals would be in, and would travel to Philadelphia to open the postseason.  The playoffs do not start today.  Enjoy three days off – pressure free.

7/11/08 – Cardinals 6, Pirates 0

Straightforward stuff – and I promise I won’t only post about wins in the future.

Lohse was excellent, and Duke was actually half decent.  The five consecutive baserunners in the third weren’t helpful, and a solo bomb from Ludwick and an RBI single finished off the night for the Pirates.

Now, for a theme that spans the whole of the last three games: approach, approach, approach.

A key to the Cardinals’ unexpected success this season has been the propensity of the hitters to draw walks.  It’s a really important element of success – even an extra 20 or 30 points of OBP across a roster can lead to a big jump in run production.  On Wednesday, Rick Ankiel approached the plate with a chance to win the game, and waved at three consecutive pitches, one of which only made it fifty seven feet.  He knew he could tie the game up with one moon shot, and tried to hit it immediately.  It was something that I sort of saw coming – he’s not been around long, and it’s a difficult situation to judge.  By contrast, Troy Glaus had a high quality at-bat to draw the walk that sent Ankiel to the plate in that situation.  It’s all about approach, particularly when dealing with a guy like Brad Lidge that throws a lot of dominant pitches that aren’t necessarily in the strike zone.  The Cards didn’t give up on at bats tonight, and even though they left too many on base, they scored enough to get the win, with most of the damage coming with two out.  Good stuff, and I hope we see some more of it tomorrow.

With the Milwaukee loss, the Cardinals regain control of second place, 4 1/2 behind Chicago and 1/2 ahead of the Brewers.  Wellemeyer and Dumatrait tomorrow, 6:05 our time.