6/29/08 – Cardinals 9, Royals 6

Well, this one was not pretty in any way, but the Cards pulled it out, salvaging a series win over the Royals and a 5-4 road trip through Boston, Detroit, and KC.  OK with me – you hope to split those first six and take two out of the last three, and that’s exactly what happened.  Icing on the cake came from the White Sox and Twins, as they beat Chicago and Milwaukee today, bringing the Cards to within 2 1/2 of the division lead and extending the Cards’ lead in the wild card to two games.

Tony LaRussa did an excellent job of getting Braden Looper out of the game in the fourth inning – while the Cards had taken a big lead early, Loop had absolutely nothing today and looked out to sea.  He only lasted 3 1/3, but the Cardinal pen was able to nail down the victory.  The bullpen wasn’t great or anything, but they ate the innings and preserved the lead.  Pujols went deep again – I mean, was there any doubt?  Seven for fourteen with a dinger and four walks in the first four games back…..superhuman.  Just not of this world.

Let’s face it: the Cardinals have not really played good baseball this week, despite a respectable 3-3 record.  The bullpen has been shaky, the offense inconsistent, and the starting pitching has been very hit and miss.  They roll on, though, and who would have thought that a 5-4 road trip would be good enough to pick up two on Chicago?  Fine with me.

Rick Ankiel is starting to heat up a little bit at the plate.  Coming into today, Rick has posted a respectable .255/.329/.506 line, which is about what one would hope for.  Average OBP, big power, and the potential to be a truly amazing defensive outfielder.  He’s obviously got a ridiculous arm and can gun people down from anywhere: he’s made a CF warning track to third base throw twice this year to get guys on the fly, and his arm is probably the best in the NL for strength and getting close in accuracy.  Ridiculous stuff, and Ankiel has the potential to be an above-average outfielder.  This year was about proving that he’s capable of hanging around as a productive position player, and he’s answered that question firmly.  Very, very impressive season from Ricky, and we’re only hoping for more.

Odd start tomorrow, as the Cards and Metropolitans go at the ballpark at 6:05 heartland time.  ESPN’s bringing Maine and Lohse to you, so enjoy.  This week will be absolutely enormous, by the way: the Mets are in for four and the Cubs come to town for three.  I would absolutely love to be in a position to lead the division at the end of the week – man, how sweet it would be to hit the All-Star break in first place after expecting to be fighting Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to avoid the cellar.  Couldn’t hurt to hit them up now and send a message – let them know that the chewing gum and baling wire is holding just fine, thank you.

Hurricane forecasting, the NBA Draft, and stupidity

The National Hurricane Center, which is the best in the world at what it does, employs two sorts of models in predicting the path of hurricanes.*  Dynamical models actually analyze the atmosphere, taking into account the real position of weather systems, wind speeds and directions, surface temperatures, pressure gradients, and the like to predict where the storm will go.  Statistical models, by contrast, simply predict where a storm will go based on where storms like it went.  There’s no analysis of the atmosphere – it’s just the most likely case based on past storms.

Let’s apply these concepts to forecasting, say, the success of NBA draft picks.  A dynamical model might say “well, this guy’s got a much better three point shot than most power forwards, but he has some significant character issues as well.  These roughly cancel out, so he’s as valuable as the league-average power forward of his age, and can be expected to produce statistically as though that were true”.  A statistical model would say “power forwards at age 20 with a PER of 12 are, on average, league-average performers over their career.  This guy is a 20 year old PF with a PER of 12, so he’ll be league-average”.

The NHC uses a statistical model called CLIPER5 as a baseline for its own predictions.  “CLIPER” stands for CLImatogy and PERsistence.  Basically, they look at which way the storm is going now, which way other storms in that location at that time of year have gone, and combine the two into a track prediction.  In order for the NHC to consider its forecasts as “skilled”, they have to outperform the CLIPER model.  In other words, the NHC guys aren’t adding any value if they do no better or worse than the CLIPER forecast, which is basically an Excel sheet that needs updating.  The CLIPER5 model helps the forecasters to understand the usual situation and apply the unique circumstances of the present to get a more accurate forecast.  However, its most important function is to serve as a way to know if the NHC’s forecasts are any good.

The NBA Draft needs a CLIPER5 model.  Some basic statistical prediction, which is designed to be dumb and to ignore context, whose sole job is to filter out the undesirables and get at the truth.  I will design such a model, and we will see if Kevin McHale has any business being an NBA GM.  It’ll be several days before I can assemble the data, but it will be fun.

Any comments on the statistical model are welcome.  Remember, it’s going to be all numbers, with no subjective judgments of any kind.  The model is supposed to be dumb, mostly so we can see if NBA GMs are dumber.

* Of course, this oversimplifies weather modeling to an alarming degree.  Just trying to make a larger point here.

ESPN analyst screws up statistics, probably believes that Adam Dunn clogs up the bases

Jayson Stark is not ESPN’s best baseball guy – Rob Neyer and Keith Law are the primary contenders for that title.  He’s not the worst either, at least as long as Joe Morgan and John Kruk patrol their patches of real estate.  But he’s posted this gem of statistical analysis:

But the more we looked at this, the more we determined that if we make too little of interleague play, we’re making a big mistake.

Just two World Series winners in the interleague era have had a losing interleague record.  And all told, those 11 champs were a combined 37 games over .500 in interleague games (110-73).

 

But if you factor out the 2006 Cardinals (83-78 overall, 5-10 in interleague), a team that defied odds across the board, it gets even more pronounced. The other 10 winners had a .625 interleague winning percentage — the equivalent of a 101-win season. Those same teams had just a .593 winning percentage against their own league.

Where to start?  Well, first, you can’t conveniently exclude outliers without a better reason than “defied odds across the board”.  Sure, that Cardinal team wasn’t your typical division winner, but outliers help us to understand why the process doesn’t always produce what we’d usually expect.  In Starkworld, however, a difference that amounts to five games over a whole season (.032 of winnig percentage) collected from a trivial sample size is much more statistically significant than one randomly chosen outlier, which would have formed 8.33% of Stark’s “data” “set”.

Second, if you pick any random 18 game set, it’s very likely that teams who are good enough to contend for a title will do well in that, whether the category is actually revealing or not.  For example, no team has won a title this decade with a losing record on artificial turf.  Boston, however…….is 2-10 on the stuff.  2-10.  Start the Boston Grass Party, ’cause you’re going to need it, now that your season is mathematically over. 

(And, by the way, that isn’t far off.  They’ll need to win basically all of their games in Toronto and Tampa to get to .500, which is of course absolutely necessary to win a title.)

Third, if the “AL is stronger” thesis really holds water, you’re now setting the bar even lower – the NL has had just four world champions since 1996, one of which was arbitrarily thrown out of the data set.  This makes it even more likely that these random fifteen games will be against weaker opposition, making Point #2 even more compelling.

Fourth, Stark drops this gem:

But when we ran that research past an official of one contending team, he didn’t sound shocked.

 

“You can’t go 2-10, or 3-12, in interleague play and get to the postseason,” he said, flatly.

 

Well, that sounds logical enough. But is it? Isn’t it worse to have two bad weeks against the teams in your own league, the teams you’re actually fighting for those playoff berths? It seems like it. Except that interleague time is “the one time all year,” said the same official, “where you can lose that day and every team in your division can gain ground on you, because none of them are playing each other.” Hey, good point.

Ho.  Ly.  Shit.  This is where the dum-dums really come out.  In your league, a game lost is a game won by a potential competitor.  In interleague, that’s not true.  So, regardless of the way the standings look in the short term, it is MUCH worse to lose to a team in your league, particularly if that teams turns out to be a contender.  A brief thought experiment, if you will:

Let’s assume that all contenders except for Team A play .600 baseball in all of their games that are not against Team A.  They play .500 against each other and .700 against the also-rans.  Team A also plays .600 baseball, but some of Team A’s games are against teams against whom Team A is not competing at all.  If Team A loses to those teams, then Team A must inflict additional losses on potential competitors in its own league in order to play .600.  This, in itself, has the potential to make Team A’s competitors worse off in the standings.  However, if you kick the hell out of the teams against whom you’re not competing, your record is actually less valuable, as you inflicted fewer losses on your potential competitors.

Make sense?  Oh, shoot, I’m sorry.  Dusty Baker’s delivering a baserunning sermon – you were probably distracted by that.  Go over there.  And don’t forget to ask him for pitching tips for your teenaged son.

6/26/08 – Tigers 3, Cardinals 2

This game, simply put, was an abortion.  Absolutely awful in every way.  The Cards blew chance after chance (as did the Tigers), and eventually lost with the worst pitcher on the team on the mound for the second time on this road trip.  On the plus side, Todd Wellemeyer and Albert Pujols returned from injury and were dominant.  Good to see them back.

The strike zone was an abomination today.  Parisi’s walk off walk occurred on a 3-2 pitch that’s a strike basically any other day, and occasionally today.  Placido Polanco was tossed after being rung up on a 2-2 pitch that was six inches below his knee.  It was awful both ways, and there was literally no pitch that was consistently called a strike.  Maybe if Paul Schreiber lost some weight and got some glasses, he’d be fit for his job.  I actually want him dead right now – any man to perform that poorly at his job has no reason to live.  In an hour, I’ll think that’s an exaggeration, but not right now.

I really have to question Tony’s handling of the bullpen today.  In the sixth, Ron Villone was thrown to a pack of right handed wolves, despite being completely ineffective against righties all year long.  The Cards were running out of relievers late, so Parisi is somewhat justifiable, but Russ Springer was still available.  He has pitched a lot lately, but another inning would have been perfectly reasonable.  On top of that, you’ve got a guy with horrible control on the mound and an umpire who hasn’t the slightest clue about this game called “base ball”, and you intentionally walk a slumping Cabrera to load the bases. 

Whatever – another shitty game and another shitty day.  3-3 on the road trip so far, which is fine I guess.  The Cubs trail by eight, so the Cards should remain 4 1/2 out of the Central.  Tomorrow night, it’s a 7:10 start.  Former Mariner special, as Piniero faces Kansas City’s Gil Meche.  Damn.

6/25/08 – Tigers 8, Cardinals 7

This is the worst loss of the year, and the first one to cause me to walk the streets.  I do that every time the Cards or Sooners suffer a devastating loss.  Usually, it happens about ten times a year with the Cardinals – a loss so frustrating, humiliating, or just plain painful that I can’t sleep, read, think, or care about anything other than how much I wish I didn’t care about this one thing.  I was out about an hour, picked up a DDP and an iced Honey Bun, and now I guess I write about the game.

Nobody pitched well, and that’s why we lost.  Lohse was hit hard, Perez didn’t give up any runs, but didn’t pitch very well, and Izzy/Flores/McClellan weren’t great either.  Control rears its ugly head, but mostly it was the eighteen Detroit hits.  Rough stuff.  Well, I guess now I’m supposed to tell you what I noticed so that you can know the Cards or baseball better.  OK, here are three things that were important. 

1) Carlos Guillen is not a good defensive player, and neither is Miguel Cabrera.  Yadier Molina nearly came up with an infield hit on Guillen, and that’s all you need to know. 

2) Kyle McClellan has really become Tony’s security blanket.  He wasn’t awful tonight, but gave up the winning run.  That will change nothing.  Tony needed outs tonight, and he went to McClellan immediately.  I’m glad to see that…….and I guess I’ll point out that I was talking about this like four days ago.  Folks, just believe what I say.

3) Rick Ankiel……well, he hit two homeruns tonight, but he’s still got an enormous hole up and in.  Rick, if it isn’t over the plate or below the belt, don’t swing.  Love ya.  [heart]

OK, one other thing.  The Cards approached Zumaya the same way they approached Matsuzaka, and it paid off again, as three walks led to the go ahead run at the time.  This is not a new trend: the Cards lead the NL in walks.  Even a hacker like Ankiel is adding 76 points of OBP from walks.  The whole team is buying in, and it’s keeping the boys in the race.  Hey, I feel a little better now!!!

Wellemeyer and Robertson for the rubber game at high noon.  Albert should be DHing.  4 1/2 back – need this one.

Roger Federer must have actually lost to Hrbaty in the first round, because his clear superior is out in the second

Say it ain’t so?  Please?

One down, one to go.  Tread lightly when criticizing King Fed the Only.  Tread very lightly.

Ashley Harkleroad is a fabulously attractive young lady

Just noticed this in watching her battle Amelie Mauresmo, who is rather, er, masculine.  Some pics here and here.

Her game isn’t half bad either – lost a tight first set to Mauresmo and is battling now.

Edit: The above links don’t seem to work well and aren’t great anyway – plenty of pics at the site below:

http://www.harkleroadzone.com/photos.htm

6/22/08 – Red Sox 5, Cardinals 3

Kind of a heartbreaker, but kind of not.  A 13th inning loss always sucks, but it’s always a crapshoot when your thirteenth best pitcher is handling the crucial situation.  He was, and it didn’t work out.  No big deal – still took two out of three in Fenway, and it’s only one other team that’s done that this year.  Fine with me.

Of course, the Cubs won today, so the Cards now are 4 1/2 back in the Central, and really need to pick up a game or two ASAP.  Still, if the Cards are able to win the division or wild card, this will be remembered as the series where they refused to die.  Being swept at home by the Royals is pretty much a worst case scenario, and a nine game road swing through Boston, a resurgent Detroit, and that same Royal outfit had the possibility to deliver a near knockout punch on the heels of the sweep.  It hasn’t happened so far – indeed, it was the Cardinals looking for a sweep, and this on a weekend where Lohse/Boggs/Piniero faced Wakefield/Matsuzaka/Lester, with no Pujols to bail the guys out.  The Cards haven’t won anything yet, but they haven’t lost anything either, and a splendid start to the road trip may mean a little more in September than it seems to now.

A few other thoughts from the game:

1) I really hope the Cards make it to the playoffs.  Yeah, the biggest reason for that is also the most obvious.  But also, I’d just love to see Kyle McClellan looking for big outs on the October stage.  He pitched the tenth inning today and worked out of potential trouble.  The guy’s just got a real ability to pitch in a pinch.  He’s striking out a man an inning and hardly walks anyone.  Very heady, and is giving up less than 1 HR/9 IP.  A real keeper, and I have a feeling that he’ll be getting all of the big outs in the postseason if we can get there.

2) Izzy was terrific working out of trouble.  The control problems are still there, but the pressure doesn’t get any bigger than extra innings at Fenway with the bases loaded, and he absolutely carved up two Boston hitters to get out of the inning.  It is very, very good to see him getting it together.

3) The Cards called up Stavinhoa, which is more sensible in light of the AL swing.  We’ll need a DH for the next week, so the position of the callup isn’t really as important.  Still think Barden was the right choice, but I would expect that Stavinhoa will be sent right back down before the Kansas City series, when Albert Pujols should return from his strained calf.

4) Kudos on getting to Papelbon, but the guy really is having a nice year.  He’s just on the edge of being the pitcher that really turns a game into an eight inning affair.  In our time, it’s really been Mariano Rivera (check out his numbers, by the way: even better than Papelbon) who’s been the sole guy to do that.  Nobody other than Mo has done that consistently over a full career.  It’ll be fun to see if Papelbon can attain those lofty heights.  Given the fact that the thirty eight year old is still outpitching him, I’m thinking it’s gonna be awhile.

Monday is an off day, which is very fortunate given the six innings from the pen today.  Tuesday night, we’ll meet the Tigers at Comerica for a 6:05 Central start.  It’s Looper and Kenny “Pine Tar” Rogers.

Is it just me who’s sickened at the audacity of the proles?

Well, looky here.  Roger Federer is dead.  Nice of him to roll over.  It’s really cool that Djokovic and Nadal are tied for #1 in the world and that the likes of David Ferrer and maybe even David Nalbandian are on Federer’s tail for #3.  Why don’t they just take the bastard to the glue factory and get it over with?

I absolutely cannot believe folks.  All of a sudden, Roger Federer isn’t the prohibitive favorite at Wimbledon.  Two guys with a grand total of four majors between them are now calling the champion out on the carpet, and the mainstream media appears to have followed right along (see the barrage of ESPN pieces questioning Fed’s dynasty and dominance at Wimbledon).  Nadal’s well played loss at Wimbledon last year appears to be the best piece of evidence that the low class chronic ass-scratcher Nadal boosters have to support his chances this year, aside from Federer’s “slump”, which features a third consecutive French final, mono, and a “pathetic” semifinal at the Aussie.  Yeah, lousy bum, huh?

Look, I really like the game that Nadal and Djokovic bring.  They’re really great players and worthy #1 contenders.  But the King is not dead.  I cannot understand how these animals feel worthy to criticize Roger’s performance, or to imply that he is anything other than the very best player in tennis.  For a sportswriter to criticize Federer on the eve of Wimbledon is like some POS liberal arts major from Tufts calling out Shakespeare for being trite.  If you don’t think he’s going to win, then fine: but tread lightly when questioning Fed’s legacy.  Only Borg has ever dominated Wimbledon this way, and I think Federer’s dominance has actually been more complete.  Federer is a legitimate candidate to be considered the greatest of all time, and these guys are two young whelps who’ve won some matches.  Until that changes, spare us the “changing of the guard” crap, and don’t criticize your betters.

I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if Fed doesn’t win: it takes a lot to beat seven of the world’s best players right in a row.  But Nadal would need three consecutive Grand Slams to equal Fed’s record, and I don’t bury the champion lightly.  Federer is classier, smarter, and above all, better.  I’ll bet on that over a flash in the clay.

Dicey Dice-K

Daisuke Matsuzaka took his first loss of the season today, and he deserved five more just like it. Obviously he wasn’t good today, but everyone has a rough day. Why so harsh?

Well, Matsuzaka really hasn’t had a very good year. I know, I know, you’re going to start talking about that shiny 2.5-ish ERA and that gleaming 8+ K/9. Maybe you’d like to talk about these two points as well…..

First, his walk rate is an abomination. I don’t pay that much day to day attention to the AL, but my interest was piqued by a typically inane McCarver comment that Dice-K’s walks were “good” walks. Short of walking Albert Pujols to get to Cesar Izturis, there aren’t all that many good walks, and most of those that are come as intentional walks. Walking over 5 per nine is not a good way to do much of anything as a big league pitcher. It puts people on base and elevates your pitch count. That’s one reason he’s pitching under six innings per start. That’s one reason he’s about half as valuable as a guy like, say, this year’s version of Roy Halladay. Halladay doesn’t walk anybody, while striking out about as many as Matsuzaka.

But, OMG, what about that ERA? Why does Dice-K have a better ERA than Halladay, smart guy?

Because he’s lucky, and that’s basically the whole reason. His BABIP against (DER, or defensive efficiency rating for short) is sitting under .250, which is unsustainable for anybody. Partially because of this, and partially because of additional luck, he’s stranding 81% of baserunners. Also unsustainable, and indicative of a beatdown in the future. Kind of like what happened today, now that you mention it.

It’s not like he’s a bad pitcher or something: his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which is an ERA number adjusted for defense) is still better than league average, and he’s a fine pitcher. Indeed, his FIP this year is better than last. But luck has something to do with that as well, and he’s going to struggle if he continues to walk people like it’s going out of style. On the plus side, his HR rate is low, and even as it comes up, he’s doing better than most pitchers in that stat. He’ll be fine: he just won’t be an ace until he starts throwing strikes.